“Cuba em perigo” first appeared in Brasil de Fato on January 27, 2026. It is published on Communis in a revised and expanded version in both English and Spanish translation.
“Trump’s strategy aims at political and social subversion in Cuba through economic strangulation. Social unrest on the island increased as life became more and more difficult. However, the reasons that may lead people to take to the streets are not sufficient to characterize any mobilization as progressive. The fact that the social subject is of popular origin is an important factor, but it is not enough either. If the leadership is reactionary, it is imprudent to ignore the most likely outcome. An objective analysis is necessary to avoid falling into the trap of devaluing the role of those who lead the mobilization and overlooking the outcome that leadership seeks. The struggle for power is at the heart of the class struggle. A destabilization of the Cuban government to facilitate the surrender of the country to the Miami bourgeoisie would be a historic tragedy.”
— Valério Arcary
What does “unconditional” defense of the USSR mean? […] It means that independently of the motive and causes of the war we defend the social basis of the USSR, if it is menaced by danger on the part of imperialism.
Leon Trotsky, “Again and Again on the Nature of the USSR,” October 18, 1939.
1.
The situation in Cuba has worsened significantly following the attack on Venezuela on January 3 and the subsequent kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores. The interruption of Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba has been partially offset by Mexico, but that country’s decision and ability to continue sending oil to Cuba are now under threat. Trump is betting that tightening the screws of economic strangulation on the island will fan the flames of social unrest, and he has already predicted the imminent collapse of the Cuban government. The US press has reported unofficial statements by Washington administration officials that there is a plan to overthrow the Cuban government by the end of 2026 at the latest. In his provocations, Trump went so far as to declare that Marco Rubio, the current Secretary of State and a member of a family of Cuban origin, could be a good candidate for the presidency of Cuba. This dramatic avalanche poses a strategic challenge for the global Left, especially in Latin America. The defense of Cuba against imperialism is a matter of principle. The project to overthrow the Cuban government is counterrevolutionary in nature. The fall of that government would be a historic defeat whose impact could only be compared to the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The restoration of capitalism in Cuba would be ruthless, and the country would once again become a semi-colony; or worse, a US protectorate, similar to that which exists in Puerto Rico, a devastating outcome for all of Latin America.
2.
The internal situation in Cuba is one of immense hardship, unfortunately increasingly similar to that of the 1990s during the so-called “Special Period” that followed the collapse of the USSR. Power outages lasting several hours a day punish the island’s population, and not even the big cities are spared this scourge. Shortages are widespread, of both food and medicines. Most of the population lives in conditions of material hardship. In 2024, Cuba requested assistance from the United Nations World Food Program, given its inability to meet the acute nutritional needs of children on its own. According to estimates, the Covid-19 pandemic caused the Cuban economy to contract by more than 10% of GDP. The health crisis has reduced tourism to almost nothing and exacerbated the shortage of hard currency—dollars and euros—essential for financing imports and controlling inflation. Since 2020, nearly one million Cubans have left the island in their struggle for survival. Why this terrible vulnerability? Because Cuba remains dramatically besieged by Washington’s blockade, which has been exacerbated by new sanctions imposed by the Trump administration since his first term (and which Biden left intact). Located just 90 miles south of Florida, Cuba was the scene of the triumph of the first socialist revolution in America in 1959 and, as an independent State, has been able to resist all attacks to this day. Yankee imperialism considers the continued existence of a Cuba able to prevail unacceptable. The Cuban bourgeoisie in the United States is much stronger today than when it fled to that country from the island, having joined the ranks of the Yankee ruling class, the most powerful in the world. Unlike the Chinese capitalists in the diaspora, it has refused any negotiation with the Cuban government and has maintained a position of uncompromising support for the blockade against Cuba. Having ruled out a military strategy that would lead to civil war, Washington’s bet is to gradually bring Cuba to a cruel and relentless economic suffocation in order to foment a social crisis and internal subversion within the island.
3.
Cuba’s isolation, exacerbated by the unfavorable evolution of the political balance of power in the global system in the face of Trump’s offensive to preserve US supremacy, is at the root of the current situation. Cuba is not proof that socialism is unviable, but quite the opposite. For decades, Cuba inspired the world with extraordinary social achievements in education, public health, and medical research that far surpassed those of countries with far greater natural resources and a higher level of material and technological development. Cuba’s scientific achievements have recently included the autonomous development, in record time, of vaccines against the coronavirus. Social ownership and economic planning have proven their superiority over the property regimes and management systems in capitalist States at a similar stage of economic and social development. It makes no sense to compare Cuba with Spain, but it does make sense to compare it with neighboring countries in Central America or the Caribbean. In general terms, while the USSR existed, Cuba’s social development was a complete success. To cite just a few examples, even in 2022, according to data from the United Nations Development Program, Cuba had a Human Development Index of 0.762, placing it in the group of countries with “high human development,” with a life expectancy of 77.63 years and an infant mortality rate that, until that same year, had been lower than that of the United States for decades: approximately 4.08-5 deaths per 1,000 live births in Cuba compared to approximately 5.4-5.9 per 1,000 live births in the United States. On the other hand, the post-capitalist transition process in Cuba was interrupted by numerous factors. Even so, the new affluent social sectors that were formed on the island thanks to business opportunities favored by the government itself in order to increase productive capacity and attract foreign investment remain outside of power. It cannot be denied, however, that after so many years of devastating sacrifices in Cuba, a generational divide has emerged that is difficult, if not impossible, to bridge.
4.
Trump’s strategy aims at political and social subversion in Cuba through economic strangulation. Social unrest on the island increased as life became more and more difficult. However, the reasons that may lead people to take to the streets—even when they are legitimate and understandable, as during the massive protests of July 11, 2021—are not sufficient to characterize any mobilization as progressive. Being on the Left does not oblige us to support any mobilization against the government. In the Marxist tradition, there are four criteria for forming an opinion about the nature of a protest: 1) what are the demands or the program; 2) who is the social subject; 3) who plays the role of political subject; and 4) what are the likely outcomes. It is not enough for the demands to be just. The fact that the social subject is of popular origin is an important factor, but it is not enough either. If the leadership is reactionary, it is imprudent to ignore the most likely outcome. An objective analysis is necessary to avoid falling into the trap of devaluing the role of those who lead the mobilization and overlooking the outcome that leadership seeks. The struggle for power is at the heart of the class struggle. A destabilization of the Cuban government to facilitate the surrender of the country to the Miami bourgeoisie would be a historic tragedy.
5.
In Cuba, the choice is not between dictatorship and democracy, but—as in Venezuela and Iran—between independence and recolonization. Defending Cuba against imperialist pressures does not mean unconditionally aligning oneself with every action or measure taken by the government in Havana. On the contrary, any honest attitude of solidarity and internationalism must be one of critical support, both at the strategic and tactical levels. This means that those who defend the Revolution must be able to exercise their democratic rights to free expression in the face of onerous bureaucratic pressures. In December 2025, Alejandro Gil, Cuba’s former Minister of Economy, was sentenced to life imprisonment. Among the charges brought against him by the Cuban Supreme People’s Court were accusations of espionage, corruption, bribery, and economic crimes. Gil had allegedly abused his position for personal gain and provided information to foreign entities. Even so, Cuba’s survival is impressive proof of the achievements of the Revolution up until the 1990s. Most of the States that gained political independence in the wave of anti-imperialist revolutions that followed the victory of the Chinese and Cuban revolutions were unable to preserve their revolutionary achievements: Algeria and Egypt are examples of this historical regression after 1991. In this context, Brazil’s responsibility—and, on a different scale, China’s—in solidarity with Cuba is inescapable. Cuba is in danger. It must be saved.
Featured image: Fidel Castro (right) and Camilo Cienfuegos (left) during the triumphant entry of the Rebel Army into Havana on January 8, 1959. Archive photo: AFP.
Translated from the Portuguese by Rolando Prats.
